Investing strategy
This article is to explain how I invest, i.e. what I do and don’t do and why.
Why invest in the first place?
Whoever we are, men and women alike, and whatever our position in life, we would all do well to develop an investing habit.
Investing is ultimately a way to gain control of our time because, whilst money is obviously not the solution to a great many human challenges, we all need it to live, and investing ultimately has the power to generate money without selling time.
The ultimate aim is not to cease working. Note that people who don’t have jobs often work extremely hard, harder in fact on projects of their own choosing than employees who are sometimes disengaged and unhappy at work or just exhausted from the relentless nature of the rat race.
The aim isn’t even to cease selling our time; it is instead to create the freedom to work at doing what you want to do with your time for your own reasons (beyond those of just trying to earn money) and not to feel you have to agree to things you don’t want to or have someone else force-determine your activities for you in exchange for money you cannot do without.
Children, and perhaps some adults, are not yet ready for the responsibility of deciding for themselves how to fill their time and wouldn’t know how to productively use this freedom for the betterment of themselves and others if they had it. Some people are more comfortable being assigned specific tasks and projects by others – and there is absolutely nothing wrong with any of that.
However, with the exception of a trusted coach I might hire, these days I personally struggle to see the attraction, and virtue even, of anyone force-assigning me activities – particularly should their chosen assignments for me be out of alignment with what I think is a worthy use of my time. Such an assignment is the stuff of a master/slave relationship whereas good relationships are based on a series of mutually beneficial agreements which the need for money can sometimes skew.
Now for the ‘How’ of investing.
Asset allocation
The key to successful investing is asset allocation.
This article covers how I personally allocate. How I allocate is certainly not the only (hopefully intelligent) way to allocate, but all robust asset allocation strategies will have certain characteristics in common:
- Money will be allocated to different asset classes and risk categories
- Large proportions of net worth won’t be put on the line in a quest for growth or immediate cash
Real estate – ~80% allocation
First and foremost I’m a landlord and this is because I would always invest 80% of my net worth into real estate. Here’s why:
- Real estate never gets old
Real estate, in a decent location, is a low risk investment because it cannot go out of fashion or favour because of the basic human need for shelter. Whatever new technology comes out this will remain a constant. Not only are you buying the property but you are buying the land/space and God isn’t making any more of that as populations continue to rise.
- Safe leveraging
Real estate, through gearing, safely harnesses the power of leveraging in a way that no other asset class I have ever come across safely can.
Say you bought a property for £140,000, you put down a £14,000 deposit, and then over the next five years (investment performance tends to be measured in 5 year cycles) the property increased in value by 10%; you have made 10% of £140,000, i.e £14,000, not 10% of what you actually invested; you have made 100% of what you actually invested.
And if your recently purchased property unfortunately happened to drop 10% or more, that is of no concern to your lender who, provided you keep making your monthly payments of course, won’t bat an eyelid. And they certainly won’t suddenly demand a portion of their loan back in an urgent margin call informing you that your investment has dropped in value, that they therefore cannot lend you as much anymore and that you must either sell some assets or top up your investment account (which is what happens with broker margin accounts). With property you have the luxury of waiting for the value to come back up again. No urgency, no stress.
- Friendly inflation
Even if you don’t pay down the capital and borrow permanently on an interest only basis, inflation becomes your friend as it erodes the value of your debt over time. £120,000 of mortgage debt now isn’t as intimidating as it used to be and will be even less intimidating in another 20 years. My parents bought their 3 bedroom North West London semi in 1970 for £7650.
- Always income generating
Although money is tied up in a rental property there is regular income through rent.
Note that if you live in the property yourself as opposed to letting it out, it’s still a hedge against inflation but it is not an investment; rather it is a lifestyle purchase.
Stock Market – Refreshingly different from real estate – 20% allocation
With property being an illiquid investment vehicle (slow to enter into and out of) characterised by strict lending criteria and a requirement for large deposits, there is also a place for investing in the stock markets. The stock markets offer a wide array of investments refreshingly free from these 3 characteristics – and no tenant, ‘sorry to bother you but’ emails to boot!
The financial markets to me are also plain fascinating and by investing in them you create a new connection with the world, the wider economy, diverse industries, and a whole raft of companies doing absolutely amazing (and some foolish) things. Everything matters more when there is money on it – as the Sky Sports refrain goes – and as an investor, said connection becomes tangible transforming the way you listen to the news. People can be dismissive of events that don’t affect them personally.
However, because of the predictably unpredictable nature of the stock market, and that consequently leveraging isn’t safe (which in turn minimises upside potential), I consider it an appropriate vehicle for only 20% of my net worth.
Two different stock market strategies
This 20% allocated to the markets I further divide into 2 equal portions which I use for 2 very different strategies:
Stock market strategy #1 – A diluted risk, dollar cost averaging strategy: buying strong indexes and low cost multi asset funds, monthly, over decades and refrain from making any withdrawals.
Safe, zero stress, consumes zero time – ~10% net worth allocation
My current chosen pure equity index plays (which I monthly dollar cost average into through a Friends Life platform) are the FTSE 100 and Euro STOXX 50 indexes. They aren’t going to drop or increase 50% overnight. If they both drop 20%, which can possibly happen over a period of time, we’ve already entered a bear market and it’s BIG global news. Like with property, should that happen I am confident both indexes will come back up again gradually and, until they do, some comfort can be derived from buying the next monthly chunk at a discount.
Make the ride even gentler by diversifying with a global multi asset fund that includes bonds and commodities.
By reducing the equity weighting, an investment vehicle becomes more of an all weather product that does less well in a rising market but less badly, and maybe even reasonably, in a falling market.
My personal answer to this currently is a Standard life with profits fund which includes global equities, bonds and some cash, and a Standard Life managed pension fund, which is another global multi asset product, but more heavily equity weighted.
With some funds, weighting of stocks vs bonds can be easily and quickly adjusted online to suit the economic conditions of the moment – like putting your snow chains on one morning.
The markets have a wide range of indexes and funds to select from and likewise there are many different online investment platforms through which to invest in them.
Stock market strategy #1: a proven strategy
Investing monthly into strong indexes and multi asset funds, over decades and therefore varying market conditions, is a tried and tested way to amass wealth and is consequently the structure of private and company pensions funds.
Here I offer some extra considerations to make strategy #1 work as effectively as possible
Time in the market and consistency of payment contribution are the two keys to excellent compounding and therefore success. Naturally the higher percentage of your monthly income you pay in, the greater the growth. The received wisdom is that a 10% monthly investment is a minimum reasonable contribution. I would like to suggest this can always be eked out of one’s income relatively painlessly by way of sensible cost cutting.
It’s never too late to start a monthly saving plan and eventually, if you pay enough in for long enough, this strategy will enable you to create the passive income you will need later in life.
If you don’t have the appetite to invest in real estate you might use this strategy as your primary ~80% vehicle.
Use tax shelters
Owning your stock market investment vehicle inside the wrapping of a pension or an ISA, which you can’t currently do with a property, is tax efficient. With a pension you get tax relief on your deposits but you will pay tax on withdrawals; with ISAs you deposit net cash but pay no tax on withdrawals.
Personally, for all my funds and indexes, I have chosen the pension wrapping over the ISA because that way I simply can’t take any money out before the age of 55, hence removing all temptation to do so.
Minimise fees
Ensure your yearly fund charges (and platform charges if applicable) are as low as possible as these can dramatically eat into your compounding gains over time. An overall charge of more than 1% starts to concern me.
Summary
This diluted risk, dollar cost averaging strategy is a stress free way of investing in the markets: no ongoing research or difficult and fatiguing decision making is required once you have chosen your, easy to choose, indexes and multi asset funds, none of which you are tied to. Keep paying in over time via direct debit, irrespective of market movements and conditions, all of which are largely irrelevant as you aren’t making withdrawals and are continuing to invest monthly until such time your pot is big enough and accessible based on your age.
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Stock market strategy 2 – characterised by a greater concentration of risk, and active management – the possibility of regular buying and selling. 10% net worth allocation.
Now that we have covered strategy #1 let’s move on to my strategy #2. Whilst I would recommend strategy 1 to everyone, strategy 2 is not necessary to get ahead and might in fact be ill-suited to you.
Who should and shouldn’t participate
I only suggest actively managing your investments if:
- You have a certain net worth at least 10% of which you currently hold in cash with the other 90% already invested and growing in your other, lower risk, investment vehicles
- You are willing to tie up said available cash for an unknown amount of time in order to try to grow it
- You have time to research and review your investments
- You accept you will win some and lose some
- You understand and accept the capricious and imperfect nature of the financial markets
Why strategy 2 might appeal
Paying in monthly and delaying gratification by tying up funds for 30 or 40 years (stock market strategy 1), by which time many of life’s windows of opportunity (possibly even life itself!) will have closed, I am sure you will agree is pretty damn boring.
Sometimes we find ourselves looking for faster gains or gains we want to use in the short term. We want to create income now or generate money for something we want to buy now. Quite rightly so we don’t want to wait until we are 60 before we buy X or go to Y and we have some available money to invest to see if we can turn our desires into reality sooner.
How to execute this strategy
Prepare your lump sum which you will need to initiate your investment. You won’t go very far with a single monthly payment you are diverting from strategy 1. Once you have your lump sum you can then open your brokerage account.
US trading on a US platform
I active manage primarily using North American investment products through a US brokerage because, whilst the dividends are typically low compared to UK equities, the opening hours are convenient, the selection of available products is colossal (and can use ADR’s to buy overseas listings), there is no stamp duty payable when buying, trading costs are inexpensive and because this complements stock market strategy # 1, which in my case is more weighted towards UK and European investment products.
Investing in the US markets, whilst it can be done through a UK broker’s platform, is best done through a US broker. I personally use Charles Schwab but there are other excellent companies.
As an aside it can be a useful strategy to wrap a US equity inside an ISA or SIPP which is made possible by trading US markets through a UK broker.
Investing in the US Dollar
By investing through a US broker it is worth highlighting that cash deposited in sterling will immediately be converted into Dollars exposing you to a fluctuating exchange rate (and of course vice versa with account withdrawals). This introduces an additional timing factor and level of investment diversification which I embrace and can be particularly useful where the majority of your other funds are held in a single currency and that currency isn’t a very strong one in world terms.
Select an investment vehicle with steep potential upside
We need a more concentrated product than a generic index or government bond to invest our lump sum into if we want high percentage gains in a shorter period of time.
Individual equities
Few investment products are more concentrated than that of an individual equity – which, loving to own part of a great business, is my chosen vehicle for active management and which I use alongside the stock’s options to increase flexibility and provide the increased investment complexity I sometimes want. I am not going to endeavour to discuss option derivatives in this article as, although they are a useful adjunct to this strategy, they are not fundamental to it.
Stocks are businesses. You might feel you are just buying a sterile ticker when you buy a stock but you are buying a lot more than that. You are buying into a real life management team, a balance sheet, a product and service scores, maybe thousands, of employees are getting up in the morning 5 days a week for decades to dedicate a huge portion of their lives to providing and creating, trying to make a difference for themselves and their families. As an investor let’s connect with the underlying business and its characters, without getting attached to them.
Notwithstanding this, however high quality the business is, it is undeniable that the increased concentration of a single equity compared to an index brings with it the greater opportunity we crave but also a risk we must be wary of; there are always two sides to every coin.
And this is why we need rules for the game.
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Active management rules to maximise gains and minimise losses
This section of the article is to explain how I personally run the actively managed part of my portfolio and is based on years of experience and many hundreds of trades – some more successful than others. Where I have made mistakes over the years I have naturally tried to learn from them and have tried to incorporate the learnings into this communication.
For the active management part of your portfolio you need a high level of trading discipline. This is in contrast to strategy 1 where the only discipline required is that of paying in monthly. I propose the following strategies/rules because, quite frankly, if you ignore these you will eventually get a visit from the Pain Doctor.
My do’s and don’ts of active management:
Build and manage a complementary and quality team of, in my case, mainly stocks and sometimes ETF’s, which allow you to trade a particular investment cluster as if it were a stock.
Focus on Quality
However big or small the company, always focus on quality: buy into high quality businesses that you believe have a competitive advantage.
20 Maximum
More stocks exist than you can own so choose to set a limit. I suggest a limit of no more than 20 stocks to prevent the portfolio from becoming too hard to manage effectively. If they are well chosen, complementary positions there will be no need for more because 20 is enough to hand pick a diversified selection of different sized companies in different stages of growth and from different market sectors. More than 20 is spreading oneself too thinly and not fully appreciating the companies you have already chosen. If you have more funds to invest and own 20 businesses already, consider buying more of the best buys at the time from your trusted group of 20.
For their strategy 2, some people like to pour all, or a very large proportion of their available funds into just one stock. If you choose a strong company carefully this isn’t the same as going to Vegas, spinning the roulette wheel and putting it all on red because even if you lose/got it wrong you will only lose a percentage as it drops towards your sell stop or sell threshold. Admittedly this strategy can work extremely well if your chosen company happens to hit the ball out of the park (or the market thinks so) in a given moment, but having a diluted portfolio of multiple positions personally suits me better from a risk concentration/sleep at night perspective.
You might argue 20 positions isn’t a concentrated strategy at all and prevents you from investing fully into what you feel is your best chance of gains at a given time, which is certainly true. But I will allocate resources differently within the 20 stocks, weighting the portfolio in favour of the companies I have more faith in/are showing more promise in a particular season, in order to pick up on some of these gains. Like a kind of football manager.
I would however, hold no more than 10-15% of my portfolio in any one particular stock at any one time based on my own personal risk profile. Yours might be different.
Trade size
I suggest a minimum investment of $2000 per trade to justify the transaction and trading cost.
The price per share of the stock doesn’t matter as a $500 dollar per share stock can move 10% just as readily as a $50 per share stock.
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Refrain from margin trading
So in other words do not borrow money from your broker, or anyone else for that matter, to trade on the stock market. Borrowing to invest works well with real estate but not with the stock markets because the markets are too imperfect, too capricious, too unpredictable, and like the ocean, would have no qualms in swallowing up your little overloaded boat.
We can develop bad investment habits because high risk and flawed strategies might work well once or for a limited time in certain market conditions but the weather will change (on one, two or all three of the levels I’ll discuss shortly) and you’ll eventually come a cropper if you keep doing it. Margin trading as an investment lifestyle is just another bad overconsumption habit.
Because this is such an important point dear reader I reiterate, if you are in the middle of the Pacific on a small dingy you might be absolutely fine on a lovely sunny, calm day but in reality you are terribly exposed (think tiger sharks nearby, 6 miles of water underneath you and a potential night storm white squall coming) to events outside of your control and you should be working on getting to safety intelligently, calmly (as panic helps nothing) and urgently.
Once you are aware of this risk, margin trading accounts are extremely stressful to own which in turn can affect your emotional availability and well being as well as that of those around you. Margin accounts take considerable time, skill, energy and a very strong stomach to manage well. The higher percentage of margin you use compared with your portfolio balance, the more reckless your behaviour and the more exposed and woeful your situation.
The markets are volatile enough already; for the sake of your boat and anyone tied to it, there is no justifiable need to artificially amplify the size of the waves by 3 or 4 times.
This is a section on timing
Buy on a down day sell on an up day
Whilst we can’t hope to time the market, aim to buy your investments at a good time: for example buy on a market down day, sell on a market up day; buy when index valuations are low, sell when they are high.
Don’t attempt to buck the trend
This is NOT to be confused with buying against the market trend – which is a dangerous, badly timed strategy and quite frankly stubborn. What I mean by this is that if the world is moving away from something (like CD’s and DVD’s) and it’s causing a related stock’s value to drop, don’t invest thinking it’s good value because it’s 50% cheaper than it was the last time you looked at it.
Trade in small chunks
Even if you are already convinced you want to own or sell a large quantity of a single stock you already own, buy in small chunks and sell in small chunks to diversify over time and protect yourself if you got the timing wrong.
Build your portfolio slowly
Likewise, buy and increase your 20 different positions gradually and in different market conditions. Procrastinating, unlike in other areas of life, can work very well on the stock markets. Don’t be in a rush to buy your next investment.
Use charts
Whilst I am more of a buy and hold investor than a technical analytical trader, never buy and sell without looking at a stock’s chart. Charts provide a vital sense of perspective that only time can offer.
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Don’t invest any funds you might need to urgently get your hands on
People buy stocks for only one reason but they sell them for many reasons – don’t let this be one of them. The investment up cycle of a stock can take many months or even years longer than you think. Selling before an investment is ripe can lead to missing out on, or even having to sell at a loss, a stock with HUGE upside potential.
Be Tax efficient
Look to use up your capital gains allowance every year by accumulating your losses for when you need them, this can be done by selling your winning portions (for at least 30 days before buying back in so as not to fall foul of the bed and breakfasting rule) and holding your losses.
Losses against stocks and options never expire and can be offset against gains on stocks and options but also gains on property. This is where the real estate and stock market strategies can complement each other if you need them to.
Keep ego in check and cut your losses
Don’t be stubborn, admit when you got it wrong i.e. once you can see what you anticipated hasn’t, and believe won’t ever, come to pass, cut your losses and sell.
Note that your belief that a stock is a write off can be wrong. Therefore, if I can afford to put an investment down to losses even once I have completely lost my faith in it and given up on the reason I bought it, I sometimes retain a small position. Note that if you do continue to hold a position in these circumstances it’s no longer part of the trusted 20. Think of it as a sort of scrap heap you still own.
However, if a potentially severe corruption issue has occurred with regards to a trend stock, I sell my entire position completely, straightaway. They tank like a stone.
This is a section on conviction
Build your conviction in a company before buying it and maintain that conviction in it – unless something drastically changes
Build a solid belief in a stock by getting very familiar with the company and its business through different kinds of research.
Building a conviction in your mind about a stock isn’t about uncovering ultimate reality (we don’t have access to that). It’s about building your own relationship with the company and your beliefs about it; in other words a sense of certainty about its investment worthiness. This can be done through different means:
- Tracking its stock movements for a period of time, years even, and getting used to its (evolving) patterns
- Reading about it
- Listening to business analysts talking about it
- Views of other investors you know and respect
- Reading the company earnings reports
- Listening in on the company conference calls
I find Bloomberg news helpful for a lot of the above.
Obviously misplaced conviction can be very costly so don’t reach the conviction state too quickly or easily through impatience, laziness or false conclusions.
Be clinical, not emotional
If you don’t truly understand a company and its operation and place in the world (and some are much easier to understand than others) – don’t buy it as you can be spooked too easily or be too slow to spot a serious problem. Likewise, when a stock drops there is a natural human impulse to sell but you must not sell from that emotional impulse.
Buying and selling drivers need to come from a clear sighted non emotional place inside of us – not the emotions of fear and greed. Emotion is an absolute killer to ANY good decision making process, not just trading ones. Whilst we all have emotions we must control them when we trade, not have them control us.
As such, sell only when the specific reason you bought a stock has disappeared or been undermined by a specific event or lack thereof; jumping from one stock to another on a hunch or whim is nuts and I cringe when I see people do it. When you truly understand a company, and movements in its valuation, there is much less temptation to do this.
Trend stocks vs conviction stocks: Distinguish between a trend stock and conviction stock and treat them accordingly
Treat different stocks with differing and appropriate lengths of rope/trust. You don’t lend to a stranger but to a good friend with a great track record you might if you can.
Conviction stocks
I define a conviction stock as an already well established stock that has already found its place in the world – a sort of Roger Federer of stocks, such as Visa, or Berkshire Hathaway, an Apple or an Amazon. That is to say, an already established results producing juggernaut that has been producing great results for many years already.
Trend stocks
A quality trend stock is one where it’s still unclear to what extent they’ll make it or if they’ll make it at all – like a promising young teenage tennis player. That is to say a lower level but climbing player that can be rocked much more easily and with a far less clear future ahead of them. Obviously a conviction stock was once a fledgling trend stock too; Roger Federer was once just an up and coming teenage player with an uncertain future in the world of tennis. Whilst I don’t want to ignore trend stocks, they need trusting less and putting less faith into until such time as they start to win big tournaments and grand slams – if you will permit me to continue with my tennis analogy.
The reason I don’t want to ignore trend stocks is their huge potential for rises – (think investing cheaply into a 20 year sponsorship deal with a 15 year old Roger Federer having anticipated his future brilliance) hence there being a place in a portfolio for them. But they also have huge potential for falls and failures and simply not blossoming; much more so than conviction stocks.
Note that these trend/conviction labels I am sticking on companies aren’t static: a trend stock can become a conviction stock and a conviction stock can become a trend stock again, or probably more likely an against the trend, over the hill stock trying to fight its way back up the hill (think Blackberry).
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Don’t sell too quickly on the upside
Give your winners freedom to grow – if you sell out at a 20% profit every time you can only make 20% profit. Then you miss out on the big % gains. Gains can be multi baggers: double, triple, decuple, even more. A 1000% percent increase is not impossible over time – provided you haven’t sold prematurely.
Don’t buy too quickly on the downside
Hesitate to double down on a stock you have lost on but you still have conviction in, because it can often drop far more than you think (the technical term for this is catching a falling knife). Wait for it to come back up again first or at least stabilise for a few trading sessions, before buying. This is particularly true for trend stocks which should be bought on the way up not the way down.
Rebalance
Consider rebalancing your portfolio at opportune times. This means if you have had a big win consider taking a portion off the table.
If it’s a very high conviction stock maybe less burning need but if it’s a trend stock this habit is definitely advisable as the market has less confidence in them, doesn’t know them as well, and that confidence can be quickly taken away again. Anything that has become a success overnight is not firmly established yet and can get knocked back down again just as fast. Think One Direction as opposed to Elton John.
Strategy 2 rules summary
I have provided my rules/guidelines and in hope they might be useful or of interest to you. You might add additional sensible rules as you wish. It’s your game and your hard earned money. I’d always be interested to know what rules others add or remove so I can consider applying them myself.
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Nature of the markets
I now want to make a few more generic observations about the nature of stock markets to shine more light on why these above do’s and don’ts are necessary.
The 3 reasons for a sudden drop in a company’s share price:
Stocks clearly go up and down, there are no straight lines in the stock markets, but they tend to go up gradually and down very suddenly, in gravitational fashion. Think walking up Kilimanjaro and then going to the top and suddenly launching off it: slow up, fast down.
Furthermore, these often stomach churning drops sometimes occur for no good reason – just because there are more sellers than buyers at a moment in time (the ultimate reason behind any stock increase is caused by there being more buyers than sellers and any stock decrease is due to more sellers than buyers). Nevertheless the sell off will be being triggered by an event of some kind, normally hitherto unforeseen, and quite possibly overreacted too, at one of the following 3 levels.
- A company level problem (think a particular ship sailing on the sea where something has happened localised to the boat itself.) For example a company CEO dying or resigning; a profit warning; an e coli outbreak in a restaurant; a lower than expected EPS.
- A localised problem, such as a particular country or industry issue (think a particular area of sea affecting the ships in that area). For example, an oil over supply will affect all companies involved in the production of oil, through no fault or mismanagement of their own; likewise a slow down in China will affect all Chinese stocks. These events, whilst localized, can of course create wider ripples because of the interconnectedness of everything. For example, if a lot of money has been lost on oil it might be necessary to release funds from elsewhere triggering a sell off, or if China is slowing down an American company whose current focus is on growing in China will be affected. #Everything has a consequence.
- The entire economy (think all oceans). A major terrorist event, war or global virus. Affects all of the sea and therefore all the ships on it.
Note that different events can occur at all 3 levels simultaneously really punishing a share price!
If the issue exists at a company level be extra wary as a stock can even drop into liquidation over time in cases where the company has just failed to add value and develop or something very undermining has happened to it. If I can personify stocks for a moment this is the up and coming tennis player when you realise he just isn’t going to make it, the train of time is going to leave the station without him and he will need an office job instead or to teach at the local tennis club for a modest hourly rate. Or a pro athlete who suddenly shoots his girlfriend dead in a tragic incident never to compete professionally again. A level 2 or 3 event won’t be fatal or permanent; oil and China won’t go to zero and neither will the global economy.
Managing the macroeconomic climate
Notwithstanding, if the whole sea is tempestuous almost everything will have lost value; these economic storms, whilst temporary, can be longer and intenser than you ever thought possible.
They can be characterised by brutal down day after brutal down day, after brutal down day, after brutal down day, then maybe an up day, then maybe a flat day, then another 4 increasingly brutal back to back down days, and then finally a really good up day after which someone naively suggests to you that everything is ok now that they have seen some green on a (day) chart. But you aren’t feeling a whole lot better just because your 40% loss over the last month is now only a 35% loss.
You need to have a strong foothold and not necessarily blame/give up on a company because its share price has dropped during these storms. Businesses are exposed victims to macroeconomic and geopolitical disasters as much as the shareholders are. These storms are buying opportunities, if you can keep some spare powder in the barrel (as the saying goes) for when they inevitably occur. You have to hold free cash to properly take advantage as any investment you sell to liberate buying monies will have been knocked down too, although some more than others based on the stock’s beta (how volatile it is compared to the market as a whole).
Storms in a tea cup: Most macroeconomic storms are insignificant in the long term
Whilst I now appear to be undermining my previous paragraph, it is very important to maintain perspective. When you are actually in a storm being thrown around it is uncomfortable and painful, but a few weeks later you will have probably forgotten about it provided it didn’t cause you any long term damage – (which you will have if you were trading on margin when the storm hit). Major world wars aside, all these geopolitical and macroeconomic ‘events’ which make noise and send markets plummeting just look like small blips if you chart a 30 year index.
Quarterly earnings reports – the times of year when the sudden movements typically occur
A stock can move hugely on quarterly earnings releases – in particular future guidance issued by the company, as the future we are heading towards is affecting the present moment. If I announce to you, as I sit there in my Armani suit with my Porsche outside and my 34 inch waste, that I feel fine but that the doctor’s diagnosis is that I have a chronic disease, your opinion about me and whether I am a good investment, will suddenly change even though everything is fine right now.
With earnings reports the price drops, or to be fair sometimes increases, after market close and the chances are you won’t be trading in extended hours so you leave the store at 16:00, come in next morning at 09:30 to find your item you still own is now worth half of what it was the previous day at 16:00 and that anyone with market access can now buy it for this new market price. Oh great! Yes that is sarcasm.
All certainty is delusional
As Dirty Harry famously said, opinions are like bottoms (he didn’t use that particular word), every body has one. Everyone has opinions and opinions are cheap and rarely cost us money. But in the world of investing your opinions can cost you dearly.
Many recommendations and opinions are bandied about, including our own, but no one knows for sure what a stock, industry or economy will do. This is true even where stocks are recommended by professionals who sell their advice, or people whose investing competency you trust and know they truly want the best for you.
Anyone who says they know what is going to happen to an individual share price in the short term is simply talking rubbish. This is partly because there is often no real sense behind the swings and movements. In the longer term thoughtful and insightful predictions are more possible but in reality it’s still uncertain. No one has a crystal ball – unless they are Gordon Gekko.
No entitlement
The anonymous market doesn’t care a jot if you lose. I did a market investment seminar in 2004 during which there was an exercise where the room of maybe 4000 participants was split into 2 halves with no explanation. Both halves were subsequently instructed to cross over to the other side of the room while randomly exchanging their money as they did so. I didn’t have loose change on me but wanted to participate so I pulled out a £10 note, a chap saw it, held out his hand and I begrudgingly gave it to him without getting anything back. He then gave it to someone else who then gave it to someone else I think. I lost track. Exercise over, I soon reached the other side of the room empty handed. I hopefully looked around to get my tenner back, looking out for someone to approach me. It soon dawned on me, to my dismay, that it was never coming back.
Officially the best £10 I have ever spent.
Stocks can swing in and out of favour
A stock can drop and come back up – so you can exit at a stomach churning loss and then watch it soar far higher than you ever imagined possible, which is an unbelievably frustrating experience to witness. You bought at 300, it dropped to 60, you sold as you could take no more of the pain, and then it went up to 600 over a period. Ouch. (Netflix)
Like being a passenger on a ship going in the wrong direction for you, you put up with it for ages at tremendous personal cost, only to finally give up and disembark. You walked away dismissing the experience as a bad decision and lesson learned.
Then you read the news a month later to see the ship is now docked up in style in Monte Carlo, exactly where you wanted to go, while you are still in Bognor trying to hitch a ride.
…
Some generic warnings
I want to finish up this section by issuing some generic warnings about strategy 2
- Most of the mistakes you can make come from action rather than inaction. Whilst it might be exciting and look cool to turn your office into a trading station full of screens and lots of activity, it isn’t the way forward
- When people tell you about what great traders they are, they tend to tell you about their winners and not their losers; be wary of your’s and others’ egos
- If you aren’t careful, or even if you are, it is a possibility that you make a sizeable profit on one trade and then a sizeable loss on another – which puts you back to the beginning again
Conclusion
Investing is a powerful life tool to develop. We would do well to invest consistently, responsibly, thoughtfully and intelligently as dictated by our individual circumstances. Build a strong foundation first and then earn yourself the right to invest in riskier ways.